Don’t expect Congress to push through any tax increases over the next four years, political analyst Greg Valliere told advisors Monday during the Financial Services Institute's annual Advisor Summit.
“I just don’t see a House of Representatives like this going for a tax increase,” he said.
Even legislation around carried interest reform is likely off the table for now, he added.
Some advisors were not quite as certain.
@Megan_Leonhardt @Greg_Valliere That’s a bold statement
— Jamie Cox (@jamesacoxiii) November 2, 2015
@Megan_Leonhardt especially given the SSA changes(both benefit and redirection of payroll tax) in the recent Budget Bill.
— Jamie Cox (@jamesacoxiii) November 2, 2015
That said, we could see international tax reform, now that House Speaker Paul Ryan doesn't have to work on the budget deal, Valliere said. He noted that between January and Memorial Day there’s a window to get some things done, and international tax reform is likely on the agenda.
Valliere expects the reforms to come in the form of a repatriation deal. Today, U.S. companies have stashed $2 trillion in profits in European banks. Valliere said it's likely Ryan will push legislation that would allow those profits to return to the U.S. at a 6 to 8 percent tax rate.
“Ryan is persuasive,” Valliere said. He added that in conversations with the Speaker, Ryan hopes to put the taxes gained through this type of deal to work in infrastructure projects and cybersecurity measures.